- What is the political climate post elections? Is the opposition hopeful despite Erdogan’s win, if so in what ways?
Nobody –both RTE and the opposition- seems to be happy with the results. Although RTE was elected as the President with 52.59% , his party AKP(JDP) lost votes and also the simple majority at the Parliament. He needs MHP’s (National Movement Party 11,10%) or IYI Party’s (9,96%) assistance. CHP (Republican Peoples Party) kept losing votes (22,65%) while its presidential candidate M. İnce picked more votes than the party. Pro-Kurdish HDP was again above the threshold (11,70%) and kept its position as the 3rd strong party in the Parliament.
- Ever since Mr. Erdogan announced snap elections there were fears that he might run unchallenged yet that wasn’t the case. What do you think Ince’s opposition means for Turkey’s democracy?
The main reason why RTE rushed to snap elections was that he saw figures of surveys, going downwards and the dark clouds on economic progress. Ince may be found successful during his campaign, he is also a pragmatist politician and has no concrete proposals for a better democracy as well as a better economy.
- What does the end of the state of emergency symbolize? In practical terms, will it restore the rule of law and make the judiciary a more balanced and just institution?
End of the State of Emergency? The new amendment of the Anti-Terror Law, which is already submitted to the Parliament and will be approved by the votes of AKP and MHP, promises an endless State of Emergency and the end of the State of Law.
- Constitutional reform changes voted in the referendum kicked off with Erdogan’s win. What actual changes have already taken into effect and how has the government reacted to them?
Nothing new, because RTE has already violated the existing Constitution -in which President’s role was clearly defined as “independent and impartial”- and been doing what he wished, as if he was authorized. The referendum has only brought -a very blurred- legal frame to his de facto practice.
- Rights groups claim that the elections were not fair due to the climate of fear, the ruling party’s control of the media and the many jailed dissidents. Do you believe these were the leading factors in Mr. Erdogan’s win? How does Me. Erdogan’s popularity play into the equation and facilitate his acquisition of power?
This is, indeed a fact. Observers from European Council have also pointed out that under State of Emergency conditions it is very difficult to speak about free elections. This fact is much clear at the Kurdish region where millions of people who had to flee form the provinces under curfews and massive military attacks (Diyarbakır-Sur, Nusaybin, Cizre, Şırnak etc.) did not have the chance to be registered and use their votes. Ten thousands of HDP leaders & activists were in prison, including many MPs and Presidential Candidate Selahattin Demirtaş.
- Where does Parliament stand today now that the system is changing into a Presidential one? The constitutional reform has taken away a lot of parliament’s legislative powers and checks and balances. What leverage does it still hold? What role will it continue to play? How do you think it will transform?
Except 1920 – 1923, In Turkey, the Parliament has never played the “Law making” role. Laws have been prepared by the Prime Ministry, ministries of Justice and Interior and by the military during 1960, 1971, 1980 military coup periods. The parties who have once gained the majority have never given a chance to others. In addition to that, strong governments were always demanded coalitions and compromising was always a fear.
Now, the Parliament has lost the chance to balance the government (now the State Administration) by Parliamentary Questioning and Interpellation. The President also has the right to declare Statutory Decrees. MPs will keep on raising their hands to prove the dictations of RTE or not. But the negative votes will not change anything.
- What constitutional changes do you find the most concerning?
All. They are a whole and this whole has nothing to do with the presidential systems in USA and somewhere else, probably except North Korea and some black African dictatorships. One man will appoint Colonels and generals, university rectors, almost all of the judges at the Constitutional Court, control almost all Media, social media and Radio-TV high Council etc. (Only last week, investigations started for 226 people due to their social media messages)
- How did this election change Turkey’s relationship with its Western allies particularly Europe? Do you believe the international community will continue to scrutinize Mr. Erdogan and keep a close eye on human rights violations, freedom of the press, fairness in the judiciary branch, etc?
Other states and international political institutions do not really care about democratic systems and violations of human rights in a country. They are usually after their political and economic interests. German PM Merkel has changed her behavior when RTE showed the card of refugees. Even EHRC closed its doors to new applications from Turkey, with the excuse that there is a chance to apply Constitutional Court to end the domestic legal path, although everybody knows that getting a result may last 4-5 years and the result will usually be negative.
And, in the international arena the new problem is have another leader whose behavior cannot never be estimated.
RTE tries to swing between Trump and Putin. A dangerous game. 
- Every time Mr. Erdogan makes a drastic political move, the economy rattles a bit. At the same time, the economy, stability, and safety are also platforms Mr. Erdogan and his opponents use to bring votes. How will this areas be affected? With Erdogan’s win, do you see any positive effects on economic growth, employment, investment and overall stability? How might these areas suffer?
At the beginning, yes. It is general fact that masses of people do not want any change, as long as they can -economically- survive and have hopes for a better tomorrow. When they lose it, it is not the end immediately, but the beginning of the end. RTE was successful in keeping this hope alive for many years. But an economy, always on the knife-back, with a very high current account deficit, always in need of hot cash form international inventors cannot last forever. When Trump called USD back home, RTE has lost this advantage, which he used as a spendthrift for long years. This has also been the main reason for early elections, before a probable economic collapse in Autumn 2018.
- Erdogan’s crackdown on the opposition has led to coalitions between different parties. Do you see this as an opportunity for opposition parties to come together and act as a system of checks and balances or for new parties to emerge?
I wish I could. But they lost that chance, by rejecting HDP out of the co-operation for elections, which helped IYI Party which had 9,96% votes -slightly below the threshold- to gain 43 seats. If pro-Kurdish HDP -left alone by others- was not able to receive 11,7% (below 10% threshold) then AKP would benefit and steal at least 50 more seats, which means a pure majority. CHP and other opposition parties would be responsible for that.
- Turkey is resilient, in what ways do you think MPs and the Turkish people will hold Mr. Erdogan accountable?
Yes, you are right. As explained above the economic situation is the key. When it goes down everything changes very fast and you see masses applauding the charismatic leader may suddenly start to boo. Remember the beginning the tragic end of Ceausescu in Romania, his final speech?
- In regards to its human rights record, do you think the government will stop using some of the same tactics to silence the opposition?
Government? We don’t have it any more. I guess you mean RTE. He is such a pragmatic person that there is nothing he cannot do, no matter if in 100% contradiction with what he said a minute ago. Yet his ego-monster may appear anytime and ruin all the play-card castles he established.
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